WeatherWill the high temperature in Los Angeles be >98° on Oct 3, 2026?
LA Heat Watch: Will Temps Hit 99°F Today?
Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours
26%▼ −2 pp / 1h
Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 12:52 AM ETMovement
- Last hour
- ▼ −2 pp / 1h
- Last day
- No reading for this period yet
Why: Over the past hour, the YES probability has moved 12 points lower. No change was recorded over the prior 24-hour period, making the recent one-hour move the notable shift in this market's short history.
What to watch: The next catalyst may be official hourly temperature reports from Los Angeles observation stations and any updated NWS short-term forecasts issued this afternoon, as the market closes tomorrow morning at 8:00 AM ET.
How it settles
- Outcome
- Los Angeles · 99° or above
- Settles
- Oct 4, 4:00 AM ET
- Resolution
- Per the platform’s rules
- Source
- Kalshi ↗
- Volume
- $18K traded
- Updated
- Oct 3, 12:52 AM ET
Weather · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.