Weather● On air today

Will the high temperature in San Francisco be <77° on Oct 2, 2026?

SF High Temperature Market Closing This Morning — Odds Favor Cool Reading

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

95%▲ +15 pp / 1h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:13 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes in 3h 3m · $22K traded

Movement

Last hour: ▲ +15 pp / 1h
Last day: No reading for this period yet

Why: The YES probability moved 15 points higher over the past hour. No movement was recorded over the prior 24-hour window. The hourly move appears tied to the market nearing resolution with observed temperature data in hand.

What to watch: The next catalyst is the official market resolution at 8 a.m. PT this morning, when final settlement will reflect the recorded high temperature for San Francisco on October 2, 2026.

How it settles

Outcome: San Francisco · 76° or below
Settles: Oct 3, 4:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $22K traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:13 PM ET

Weather · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.