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Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Bitcoin at $100K by Year-End? Market Prices 40% Chance

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

40%▲ +3 pp / 24h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:07 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes Dec 31 · $1.5M traded

Movement

Last hour: No change / 1h
Last day: ▲ +3 pp / 24h

Why: Probability is flat over the past hour and up 2 points over 24 hours. Bitcoin is trading near $62,559, off approximately 1.8% on the day. No dramatic directional shift is reflected in recent market movement.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be October CPI data, Fed communications, Bitcoin ETF flow reports, and whether BTC can reclaim key technical levels. Traders appear to be watching the $65,000–$70,000 range as a near-term reference zone.

How it settles

Outcome: Above $99,999.99
Settles: Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $1.5M traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:07 PM ET
Context: CoinGecko: BTC $62,559 (-1.8% 24h) — 50% below its all-time high — CoinGecko

Culture · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.