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Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?

Texas Senate 2027: Paxton Market Sits at 37% YES

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

37%▲ +2 pp / 24h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:07 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes Nov 3 · $9.9M traded

Movement

Last hour: No change / 1h
Last day: ▲ +2 pp / 24h

Why: The probability edged one point lower in the past hour and has held flat over the past 24 hours. Volume exceeds $9.9 million, reflecting substantial trader attention to this contest.

What to watch: The next catalysts may include primary results, Paxton's legal standing, Democratic candidate announcements, and polling from Texas entering 2027. National party recruitment and fundraising figures could also shift this market.

How it settles

Outcome: Ken Paxton
Settles: Nov 3, 11:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $9.9M traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:07 PM ET
Context: Catalyst (Wed): “Republicans see Minnesota fraud scandal as a chance to go on offense in a blue state” — Abcnews.com — NewsAPI

Politics · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.